Swine flu panic is spreading in Mexico and soldiers are patrolling the streets after it was confirmed that human to human transmission is occurring and that the virus is a brand new strain which is seemingly affecting young, healthy people the worst, and that the bug is a never-before-seen intercontinental mixture of human, avian and pig viruses from America, Europe and Asia.

Clues that the virus may be a synthetic creation are already manifesting.
“This strain of swine influenza that’s been cultured in a laboratory is something that’s not been seen anywhere actually in the United States and the world, so this is actually a new strain of influenza that’s been identified,” said Dr. John Carlo, Dallas Co. Medical Director
http://www.prisonplanet.com/medical-director-swine-flu-was-cultured-in-a-laboratory.html

HOLY s*** !
Is this a Terrorist attack ?
First Americas economy is trashed and now they face an epidemic that their health system is not designed to cope with.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26flu.html?ref=health
cases in New YorK California and Texas.

Get help

Haha terrorist attack ... you can't really believe the s*** you come up with can you?

This flu could be monster though and turn into the pandemic that the WHO has been expecting for years..

just for faceman

^

hahahahahaha

BWAHAHAHAHAAHAHAH!!

We as a nation, have got to ask ourselves

This just makes me shake my head,
I mean, really, how f***ing stupid are Americans really....

I'm almost embarassed to admit I share my "metallicised" oxygen with them.

I for one hope this man bear pig bird virus was designed to eliminate IQ's less than 120 (I will still need a few stupid people around to do my menial tasks).

The U.S Economy crash is their own fault. No great conspiracy there.

So what clues are there that it is created?

Dude, I'm sure if they had the ability to make a viable virus, they could make something a lot more deadly then this one.

Stop smoking.

i blame the gays for the rainbows.

LOL, swine flu

that sounds hilarious

Lol @ FaceMan. Do you just look up new conspiracies all day?

For the love of god will someone please just ban Facemen off these damn forums. Please put us out of our misery.

You mean him out of his

As long as it gets done it's all good.

Dude, I'm sure if they had the ability to make a viable virus, they could make something a lot more deadly then this one.

Not to mention that the deployment was woefully orchestrated.

After all the effort involved in manufacturing a killer flu, to release it in f***ing Mexico? A real bio-terror attack would have simultaneous points of origin across the US, starting in major population centres like NYC, LA, Dallas and obviously DC, and possibly internationally in London, Paris etc.

Instead the virus' human vectors emerged in a poor region with relatively low hygiene standards, ripe for this sort of virus to evolve. Its just so blatantly a natural event that leaping to a conspiracy theory is ludicrous.

Released at Air ports, Train stations, bus ways and other major centers of public transport in confined spaces.

I vote we focus on the interesting-ness of this flu "outbreak" and ignore the conspiracy theory bulls***

I vote that anyone talking about that s*** gets a nice long ban.

The most interesting discussion point right now is comparison to the last seriously bad influenza pandemic, the spanish flu, which occurred in 1918. It had an estimated 2-5% global mortality rate which works out to an estimated 20-100 million deaths in just 2 years.

As far a the actual mortality rate of the virus itself:

The unusually severe disease killed between 2 and 20% of those infected, as opposed to the more usual flu epidemic mortality rate of 0.1%.

For this current virus, I saw somone toting a number of around 5% based on reported cases and deaths but that wont be accurate because a large number of mild cases wont be reported which drops the number a lot and that probably isnt a large enough sample size anyway. The released statistics from a bbc article:

Mexico's Health Secretary, Jose Cordova, said a total of 1,324 people had been admitted to hospital with suspected symptoms since 13 April and were being tested for the virus.

"In that same period, 81 deaths were recorded probably linked to the virus but only in 20 cases we have the laboratory tests to confirm it," he said.

The swine-bird-man virus is of the same subtype as the spanish flu, H1A1 and unlike normal influenza outbreaks which peak in winter, the swine flu (and the spanish flu) are coming on leading up to summer (where it originates).

The spanish flu also differed to normal influenza in increased mortality in young adults as opposed to the very young/old:

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/8531/wcurve.png

The swine flu deaths have so far been in a similar age group. (not that it really means anything since most old people and babies dont go running around in markets and s*** where transmission probably occurs most, the first deaths being younger people isnt proof of anything)

There will probably be a whole bunch of other similarities which either relate to the subtype or are just coincidence/have a logical explanation rather than some kind of crazy specific of the virus which makes it more deadly. Most likely, we wont know s*** all about it for a while.

last edited by qmass at 16:39:49 26/Apr/09

Even more freaky, NEW ZEALAND IS ALREADY LOST. CLOSE THE f***EN BORDERS WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIEDIDIEIEIEIEI! (fear mongering is fun)

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/akld-students-show-swine-flu-symptoms-2675117

The world is so much smaller now.
So many ppl traveling between countries very quickly.

I imagine TodayTonight and ACA will whip the public into a frenzy and Krudd will inevitably use a swear word to describe the situation.

faceman, what happened to parts of America being owned by China. wasn't that suppose to have happened by now?

even thinking about this pandemic gives me the sniffles. MAYBE I HAVE IT.

I sware that faceman works for one of those current affairs programs. They know how to blow s*** out of proportion and give a skewed interpretation of the truth.

Dont force me to make a Chem-Trails Thread.

I, for one, welcome our swine flu overlords.

IT'S BEGINNING. STOCKPILE FOOD AND AMMO.

all those hours in l4d was worth it, gonna grab 3 of the most trusted friends and pew pew my way into a heli.

A real bio-terror attack would have simultaneous points of origin across the US, starting in major population centres like NYC, LA, Dallas and obviously DC, and possibly internationally in London, Paris etc.

Exactly. That's how the bad guys in 24 planned it! Maybe the real world's bauer killed everyone except the one dude in mexico.

reminds me of the the avian flu... young healthy people were the ones dying... dammit, time for me to get old and unhealthy.

The secret is to coat your lungs with tar.

everyone will be dead from aids before this gets anywhere

Exactly. That's how the bad guys in 24 planned it! Maybe the real world's bauer killed everyone except the one dude in mexico.

Hah I don't watch 24! Maybe I should start writing teh TV scripts :)

1. have you ever been to mexico? you can buy hard core antibiotics over the counter without perscription.. and they all sleep with pigs.. it doesnt suprise me that this started there...

2. all those hours playing l4d are gonna start paying off when the swine flu apocolypse comes

PILLS HERE

Dont force me to make a Chem-Trails Thread.

No ones forcing you to make any threads actually....

Wow I just googled chem trails and it is about as dopey as all your other retarded threads.

I have leet immunity, I'm right.

Haven't had a cold for probably 15 years and have never had any type of flu.

Strong immune system means you go die when the pigbird flu attacks (maybe) Its actually a pretty interesting 'possible' explanation for why these types of influenza kill so many young healthy people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm

It is believed that cytokine storms were responsible for many of the deaths during the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed a disproportionate number of young adults.[1] In this case, a healthy immune system may have been a liability rather than an asset. Preliminary research results from Hong Kong also indicated this as the probable reason for many deaths during the SARS epidemic in 2003.[citation needed] Human deaths from the bird flu H5N1 usually involve cytokine storms as well.[citation needed] Recent reports of high mortality among healthy young adults in the 2009 swine flu outbreak point to cytokine storms as being responsible for these deaths.[4]

last edited by qmass at 14:50:18 27/Apr/09

just recvd this at work.

Dear colleagues



You may have read recent media reports about human cases of swine influenza in the United States of America and outbreaks of severe respiratory illness in Mexico.



These overseas outbreaks are being carefully monitoring by Queensland Health and the Department of Health and Ageing and I wanted to keep you all informed about the current situation and actions being taken.



Current situation

Over the weekend we were notified of two suspected cases in Queensland, both of which have been tested and cleared of swine flu. Both had been travelling in the region where cases have been reported.



Queensland Health, through the Department of Health and Ageing, is actively monitoring the situation and will be ready to escalate the level of response if and when required. Australia has measures in place and the expertise to deal with an emergency if the situation escalates to Australia. However, there has been no cases identified in Australia at this stage.



Although it is clear that these overseas outbreaks are caused by a new virus, it is
not clear as yet that these outbreaks suggest the emergence of a pandemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared that this situation represents a public health emergency of international concern. It has not, however, changed the pandemic phases to a higher level of alert.



I am advising anyone who has been in Mexico or the USA recently and has become ill within seven days of leaving, to consult their GP or a hospital emergency department, particularly if they have any flu-like symptoms. General information can also be obtained by calling 13 Health ( 13 43 25 84).



Current information suggests that the readily available antiviral drugs (Tamiflu and Relenza) are useful against these swine influenza viruses.



Actions to-date include:



The Australian Health Protection Committee (AHPC), which includes the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing Chief Health Officer and all other state and territory chief health officers, are meeting at least daily to discuss the situation and determine the public health response.


Information has been provided to public and private emergency departments, the Queensland Ambulance Service, private laboratories and General Practitioners, to give them factual information on the outbreaks and to alert them to the known characteristics and risk factors for this disease.


Travel advice will be available on the Department of Foreign Affairs Smart Traveler web site http://www.smartraveller.gov.au/


As Chief Health Officer, I encourage all staff to take the necessary preventative steps to protect themselves against the flu.



Anyone with flu symptoms should stay at home until they are better; cover their nose and mouth when they cough or sneeze with a tissue and dispose of it; wash their hands with soap and water after coughing, sneezing or blowing their nose, and before touching other people or objects that others might touch.



Further information about swine flu can be found on the World Health Organisation web site at http://www.who.int/en/

you might actually be superman chub. you should check into it

I have leet immunity, I'm right.

Haven't had a cold for probably 15 years and have never had any type of flu.

A very aggressive immune system isn't necessarily the best thing in the world to have.

Auto-immune disease are almost universally the suck.

I suggest less talk about the virus and more talk about what are the best static and mobile defensive structures.

THIS THING IS ALREADY HAPPENING. Do you remember what England looked like 28 days after its last outbreak? We are on like day 5 now. DON'T BE COMPLACENT.

Is this a Terrorist attack ?

Yes it is. But rest assured, Jack Bauer is on to it.

I'm more concerned about giant spiders
http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/5956/0659013700.jpg
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/5604/0659013300.jpg

you might actually be superman chub. you should check into it

Please report on how this image makes you feel.

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/4947/558pxelectronshell036kr.png

It makes me feel like stabbing you in the face.

They've arrested a suspect...


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pty6l0jfp8Y/SbFbZZ8oFxI/AAAAAAAAAL0/r9e-66v0cqA/s320/200px-Porky_Pig1.jpg

http://images.encyclopediadramatica.com/images/1/1b/1216556732428.jpg

So apparently QLD has the most reported cases and Bligh has activated our Pandemic plan. I can only find this document which is for avian flu but I guess it's mostly the same.

I'd say we're only at early stages of the plan... anyone got any more info? I can't find out much more detail other than the useful f***ing media whining about it (front page of Courier billboard is like SAVE YOURSELF FROM KILLER FLU today, losers)

edit: a quick glance at the PDF is a little bit disappointing; I was hoping it would be like "At Stage 3, the Army will be deployed in biochemical warfare suits and anyone coughing on the street will be taken to a detainment camp in the desert."

Oh man, and here I was spending my $900 on a holiday. Why didn't someone tell me earlier to spend it on an underground bunker with baked beans and space food.

Criminal investigators from the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Division

Criminal investigators from the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Division unit...

Oh snap, you just gave Jerry Bruckheimer another TV series to produce, as if NCIS wasn't enough :(

Hahahahahahaha prisonplanet.com and whatreallyhappened.com

You're a loon FM.

gotta love articles that end with 'i leave it to you to figure out why' ... ie: if you're a nutjob with a predisposition to believing whatever guff you read if it's a bit contravertial & conspiracy sounding, then you'll side with us nutjobs & believe our crap! if you aren't that sort of person then you'll just dismiss it as a hoax.

f*** YOU PIG.
http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/9692/misspiggyherself.gif

You know, this might be the most frowned on people have been of pigs since the 1992 LA riots.

The Bay of Pigs invasion was pretty horrible too.

Here's the CDC RSS feed for Swine flu:
http://www2a.cdc.gov/podcasts/createrss.asp?t=r&c=252&showall=1

Here's the WHO RSS feed:
http://www.who.int/feeds/entity/csr/disease/swineflu/en/rss.xml

I work for a hospital, and we have had deliveries this week of products related to pandemic containment.

that quick??? then the gov knew it was coming

:)
Australia should be fine. What starts in Mexico, stays in Mexico.

Pandemic stock has been held at most hospital supply departments for the last 5 years.

Hahaha love that small comic typo. I bet it was inspired by the pandemic flash game.

a predisposition to believing whatever guff you read

yeah, i hate it when i forget to not do this... even when im not reading. especially when my friend tells me shes now a lesbian on the first of april.

Kinda sucks, im going to california in 5 weeks :S

We'll by looks of it, it's now in australia.. 31 people in qld are showing symptons, every state and territory have people showing the symptons.

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/8594/27k39.jpg

Vell, you really have no clue do..Just because something starts somewhere doesn't mean it'll only happen there..

Hahaha love that small comic typo. I bet it was inspired by the pandemic flash game.

f***ing Madagascar :(

hahahaahah ravn0s

Also WHO update #4 is up:

28 April 2009--The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 19:15 GMT, 28 April 2009, seven countries have officially reported cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 infection. The United States Government has reported 64 laboratory confirmed human cases, with no deaths. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including seven deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Canada (6), New Zealand (3), the United Kingdom (2), Israel (2) and Spain (2).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.

Obviously people are no doubt going "omg pork will give me swine flu", I hope this leads to a general drop in the worldwide price of bacon so I can stock the f*** up!

From ABC News 111 flu cases are being checked in Australia, a third of those are from QLD :(

I wonder how many people will get flu like symptoms from a placebo affect from reading a lot about the flu?

I have the swine flu and brought it to work today

I feel like I'm getting the flu, or am I?

From the highly reliable Sunrise program this morning, some guy mentioned that the death rate from the normal flu in the US runs in the thousands every year. Here is what I could dig up from the CDC;

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm

During September 30, 2007 – May 17, 2008, World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) collaborating laboratories in the United States tested 225,329 specimens for influenza viruses; 39,827 (18%) were positive.

During the 2007--08 influenza season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) exceeded the epidemic threshold†† for 8 consecutive weeks in the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System during the weeks ending January 12--May 17, 2008 (weeks 9--16). The percentage of P&I deaths peaked at 9.1% during the week ending March 15, 2008 (week 11).

So that's about 3624 people that died. I'm no doctor but that seems worse than the 0 reported deaths in the US from Swine Flu.

So that's about 3624 people that died. I'm no doctor but that seems worse than the 0 reported deaths in the US from Swine Flu.

maybe the worst has still yet to come.. My wife had a little boy almost 2 months ago and she teaches the piano to kids every second day.. This contact with kids is making me nervous.. I realise the chances of my boy contracting it is extremely slim, but I can't help worrying.. Just stay away from everyone that has just arrived from overseas lol..

Worse thing is that it's getting colder and more and more people will be getting flu like symptoms that is probably nothing more than your average flu but f***...

From the highly reliable Sunrise program this morning, some guy mentioned that the death rate from the normal flu in the US runs in the thousands every year.

the same with the asian avian flu media scare... the actual annual number of fatalities attributed to avain flu was pretty much the same as the number of fatalities from any year from the flu. yet people in singapore wouldn't even go outside unless they had masks on such was thier fear of the media driven pandemic.

It must be true, the prime minister of the state of queensland said it according to news.com.AU

http://img.skitch.com/20090429-1pb2spfgsr34qjuchfwirya1ei.jpg

I also have to applaud people using google maps for plotting disaster zones / terrorism / wars and leaving in the "Get directions to here"


last edited by simul at 11:38:47 29/Apr/09

I also have to applaud people using google maps for plotting disaster zones / terrorism / wars and leaving in the "Get directions to here"

ROFL. That's gold.

You'd think that From Here link would be getting hammered.

lol On the Gold Coast my gf said that they had a 'guest speaker' come around to their class and say if you have flu like symptoms that they want you to stay home. hahahah

now all those little s***s will be off school, and they will have a valid excuse!

We'll by looks of it, it's now in australia.. 31 people in qld are showing symptons, every state and territory have people showing the symptons.

You mean the flu?

Dude at works missus got sent home from her work cause she had been too NZ at the right time
Has been required to take 2 (fully paid) weeks off, all testing paid for by Company...

Sonofabitch :/

/cue sneezing fit

i'm heading to the UK on friday and i feel like i'm getting a lil sick.. they said they are going to put up the facial heat scanner.. i think i'm f***ed

SO I heard on JJJ this morning that WHO have raised the "whatever" alarm to level 5, telling countries to prepare to implement the full scale pandemic interventions. But, to get to level 5, it just means there has been "human to human contact in two countries"... I'm not going to panic about a pandemic until I have to remove the head or destroy the brain of friends and loved ones. Hell, even then I won't panic.

Time to get some hardcore L4D practice in, seems like we are gonna need it. Seeming as im not female/OLD/Black, im gonna need one each of those type of people to team up with me when the s*** goes down, who wants in?

I'll cover myself in black paint just to join your crew Viper.

I don't think we should be worrying until the level is at blackwatch plaid

http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/6663/3585.jpg

*Edit Sorry fixed image.

last edited by Twinsen at 09:59:58 30/Apr/09

SO I heard on JJJ this morning that WHO have raised the "whatever" alarm to level 5, telling countries to prepare to implement the full scale pandemic interventions. But, to get to level 5, it just means there has been "human to human contact in two countries"... I'm not going to panic about a pandemic until I have to remove the head or destroy the brain of friends and loved ones. Hell, even then I won't panic.

Yep, it's on the WHO Website (subscribe to the RSS feed).

While I wouldn't say now is the time to panic, Kent, it's worth keeping it in your mind. Some choice quotes:

Based on assessment of all available information, and following several expert consultations, I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.

For the first time in history, we can track the evolution of a pandemic in real-time.

All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.

At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.

The biggest question, right now, is this: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?

It is possible that the full clinical spectrum of this disease goes from mild illness to severe disease. We need to continue to monitor the evolution of the situation to get the specific information and data we need to answer this question.

All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.

Hopefully nothing CRAZY happens like half the world going into winter!

...like half the world going into winter!

WHAT!? SAY IT ISN'T SO!

definate cases of swine flu are less than an hours drive from here, there's a few suspect cases that have shut schools down locally too. People are going nuts about it, I saw a lady at the supermarket last night wearing a breathing-mask.

I had a bacon breakfast taco this morning served to me by a mexican. But I haven't got sick yet :(

you deserve to get sick for eating a 'bacon taco' for breakfast, regardless of what flu's are going around

a breakfast taco is the same idea as a mcmuffin, except it's wrapped in a soft tortilla. Usually topped with some pretty potent chilli sauce/salsa.

Confirmed Swine Flu cases in Australia = 0
Media reported unconfirmed cases = 18 000 000

definate cases of swine flu are less than an hours drive from here

Where did you get that info from?

stinky is in texas, probably that far away from the mexican border

i think he is in the states, very possibly mexico is only an hour away...

also - i had allergies yesterday and a few rapid fire sneezes were more than enough to make sure i received death glares for having the temerity to venture into the city, when it was so obvious i had death flu. people get afraid so easily.

saw 2 Asians walking around with masks on yesterday. f***ers.

O. Well then... UPDATE YOUR LOCATION!

:D

http://www.cryptomundo.com/wp-content/uploads/bish.gif

CDC have a new swine flu FAQ:
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm

But we all know this isn't a new disease right? It's been around for ages.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=swine+flu&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

http://14.media.tumblr.com/b9vfl4b63mtoomzb1mNKC9bto1_500.jpg

YEEEEEEAH

haha

Haha double lols for the putting sunnies on over the sunnies.

BillyHardball - The original is from here:
http://www.biggercheese.com/index.php?comic=701

Captain tripps is here ......Time for everyone to read " The Stand " by stephen King.

I just tried to ring the Government's swine info hotline, but all I got was crackling !

faceman its no time to joke in the face of global pandemic engineered by the new world order to brainwash us into forfeiting our civil liberties for global enslavement.

I phoned the Swine Flu hotline to get advice, but it was a terrible connection...all I got was crackling.

umm.... isn't that the same joke as Faceman's?

If so you lose, if not.. you still lose.

LOL

I didn't even see Facemans post there. Apologies.

^ You don't deserve your PC

Give it to ME!

:P

I've had a pretty violent cough for the last week and a half or so, must say it's much more entertaining with all the swine flu scaremongering going on at the moment.

You're toast. Gimme your ruddbux.

Vell, you really have no clue do..Just because something starts somewhere doesn't mean it'll only happen there..

Damo collect your sarcasm tags from here.

'Nuff said.

I just tried to ring the Government's swine info hotline, but all I got was crackling !

Are you sure you didn't use a HAM radio?

Oh haw haw haw haw.

faceman its no time to joke in the face of global pandemic engineered by the new world order to brainwash us into forfeiting our civil liberties for global enslavement.

If Dave Hughes can joke about it on Nova just now, we can joke about it on QGL. I think we've got less chance of offending the masses here.

^ thats so raven,

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/4882/swinepooh.png

i went to london on the w/e and there was some fat yank eating big macs as fast as she could fit them into her face and at the same time had a full face mask on to protect from pig flu..

being an a****** and all i couldnt help but throw in a few coughs as i walked past when she had her mask down

pig zombies.

A graph I just put together from data released by WHO since they started tracking it.

http://trog.qgl.org/up/swine-flu-graph.jpg

Obviously still trending upwards, but it's not exactly an exponential curve, so I'm not too scared of it just yet, though it'll be interesting to see how many cases roll in over the next few days.. I'll try and keep it updated.

Are they confirmed cases or just reported cases?

They are "laboratory confirmed cases"

How is that anything but an exponential growth in cases?

looks pretty exponential to me.

People who get caught up in the hype and bulls*** of this crap need a f***ing slapping. When are people going to wake up to fear campaigns? There is no great epidemic just a bunch of people with the f***ing sniffles. When a million people are dead then we will call it a problem.

you would only consider it a problem when a million people die? talk about head in the sand.

How is that anything but an exponential growth in cases?

I guess I was looking at the numbers which increase pretty linearly (mostly), though there's not realllly enough data points to make a reasonable extrapolation. The graph I did is squished a bit horizontally so it makes it look more exponential, but there's really only 2 big increases - today (~400 new cases) and on the 1st (~300 new cases) - all the rest were about the same.

If tomorrow is 800 new cases then we're in trouble!@#

Why would you concider it a major problem when there are far more deadly and pressing matters that should not have attention diverted away from them for a scare campaign?

I guess I was looking at the numbers which increase pretty linearly (mostly), though there's not realllly enough data points to make a reasonable extrapolation. The graph I did is squished a bit horizontally so it makes it look more exponential, but there's really only 2 big increases - today (~400 new cases) and on the 1st (~300 new cases) - all the rest were about the same.

If tomorrow is 800 new cases then we're in trouble!@#

Keep in mind that the growth in numbers represents newly diagnosed cases, which is not the same as the number of people who have recently been infected. That is, there could have been 1500 unidentified cases two weeks ago, and therefore the "growth" merely repesents diagnoses, not spreading. On the other hand, you have to assume there are a certain number of undiagnosed cases which are not represented in the graph. So, what might be informative is to know the chronology of infection.

you would only consider it a problem when a million people die? talk about head in the sand.

How is it having your head in the sand? This world is full of so many people pushing their own agendas it is hard to tell what is real. Worry about what has happened not what could. If you want to panic about everything that comes along go for it.

How is it having your head in the sand? This world is full of so many people pushing their own agendas it is hard to tell what is real. Worry about what has happened not what could. If you want to panic about everything that comes along go for it.

You don't need to panic about swineflu, but it doesn't mean you shouldn't also do common sense things like wash your hands a little more carefully. Too many people don't do this ANYWAY, sadly - if a bit of swine flu scare encourages people to start washing their hands when they've hit the loo, then that's not too bad, I reckon

Trog I agree, be aware but not worried. How many times in the last 10 years have you heard the sky is falling? How anyone cannot be cynical towards this is beyond me. If there are millions of deaths from this I will be surprised. Medical science has taken all the fun out of a pandemic.

Trog I agree, be aware but not worried. How many times in the last 10 years have you heard the sky is falling? How anyone cannot be cynical towards this is beyond me. If there are millions of deaths from this I will be surprised. Medical science has taken all the fun out of a pandemic.

oh, yeh, for sure - the whole point of my graph was to show there's really nothing to worry about - compare growth in new cases to growth in deaths, there's almost no correlation (well, yet)

Ok, cool graph Trog, but just the graph isn't over a long enough period of time to say anything - the newly diagnosed cases haven't been around long enough to present an increased trend in the deaths yet. Give it another week of no significant increases in deaths (time delay behind the new cases increase) and it will say more.

Also, I don't actually think this will happen, I'm just saying..

The response of groups like the WHO and local authorities should be over-reactionary because of the potential for a virus to devistate. The media making people freak out is a seperate issue and I hope thats all people like dirtyape are talking about with their 'wait and see' mentality...

Science hasnt really taken the fun out of pandemics. We can't even innoculate for flu we havnt previously seen.... tamiflu is an antiviral not a vaccine and limit's the reproduction of the virus by inhibiting a protein involved in its life-cycle. If a new pandemic eg swine flu is resistant (no idea if it is) then that anti-viral is rendered useless.

What makes things like avian flu scary as f*** is how our immune system works. Its been a year or two since Ive thought about this but basically, our system works by recognising an invader from a set library which we are given at birth. If our library doesn't contain the id for a virus, like avian flu, (no idea about the swine since its part human influenza) there is no immune response. Even if we have the virus in our library, if you have never come into contact with it before, your body has to start producing antibodies before anything really happens. (vaccination starts that process so that your immune response is faster/stronger but you still get infected)

The point is, once the next uber-virus has spread and a million people start to die, it is already too late to do s*** about it. The only way to stop a pandemic is to control the spread, not to keep people alive once they have it.

http://i39.tinypic.com/1043iad.jpg

How is that anything but an exponential growth in cases?

Its exponential because of the nature of how its tested. In reality it would be reasonable straight line though steeper than the deaths (obviously). If you could graph negatives against the positives you'd see what i mean, the plot would probably be exponential as well.

http://trog.qgl.org/up/090508-swineflu.jpg 2 more days of data