I've mentioned it in passing in a couple of posts but I have established a software development Pty Ltd this year. We have a pretty solid plan and model and I'm hoping that the year will be good to us.

I know there's some industry and money people around here - what do you guys reckon 2008 will be like for the market, both IT and the wider economy? Everyone seems to be continuing to talk about growth which is good for new players but the cyclical nature of these things scares me a bit. A couple years buffer of good times to get things established would be very useful.

Fortunately I haven't needed to mortgage anything or go into debt to get started, so if it all goes belly up I'll just close down and get a regular job I guess :)

Couldn't comment on the IT industry but as the wider economy goes opinions are pretty divided.

Just don't read too much into the doomsday s*** you hear all the time from supposed economic journalists.

Have a go and see what happens, stick with it dude and make s***loads.

Yeh that's the plan DA, just have a whack, give it all I have for a few years min and see what I can make of it without risking the house / marriage / sanity :)

as long as there is a need for what you are marketing then you will be sweet and if the market changes then you will just have to make changes to your business model.

one thing that i can recomend but is don't just do it for a couple of years rather do it untill it's done and also make sure you have what you want to have in 2/5/10 years because of your business written down. And make sure you look at where you want to be every day cause it will make the hard times easier.

best of luck

gl! im kinda in the same boat. im getting more and more after hours contracting work, im very tempted to make the switch and be my own boss. just got visa issues to sort first.

Depends.

What contacts do you have?
What market are you targeting?
What makes you different?
What experience do you have at project management?
What experience do you have at responding to EOIs?
What's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats do you have?
What's the mission, goals and objectives?
What experience do you have at negotiating contracts and complying to them?
What risks have you identified?
What have you put in place to mitigate risk?
What business planning have you done, eg. financial planning for 3 to 5 years etc?

I could go on but they are certainly things to be highly considered.

i think he's just asking for some passing opinions on the possible state of the IT industry and economy over the next year, not really looking for serious analysis of his business plan etc.

^ fair enough.

Web based stuff is going gang busters since the whole web 2.0 thing. As long as youtube, facebook and myspace are in the news people want to spend on the web.

For application based stuff I don't really know.

Good questions that every starter-upper should ask themselves SFB. Although not what I was really looking to discuss ...

Background I guess? I'm a fifth-year graduate developer currently on contract to local Government to help with amalgamations. In my previous life I was product lead for an ~500k-lines-code ERP system for manufacturing industries, and have PRINCE2 project management certs (foundation, practitioner) to complement my degree.

My exposure to risk is relatively minimal, as I am steering clear of debts secured against personal assets like our family home. A key risk for software developers is litigation - I have covered my arse from scumbag lawyers with professional indemnity insurance from a reputable institution. While expensive to set up, our Company & Family Trust structure will provide additional asset protection.

I've spent a good whack of $ getting lots of legal and financial people to make all sorts of paper for me, but I think its very much worth it. I'd recommend a good financial advisor, accountant and solicitor to anyone looking to start a new business.

I'd rather not go into detail of the model / plan, but I think there's room in the market for us.

Slightly more OT, yeh there is a HEAP of interest in Web stuff. I'm happy enough bashing together ASP pages to pay the bills but I'm not sure thats the sort of solutions I want to be making my bread and butter. I'm a desktop app dev at heart :)

Thanks for the good luck too everyone - here's to hoping its not needed ... too much ...

last edited by Hogfather at 00:17:53 03/Jan/08

Isn't that scary? Desktop app development is apparently "doomed" according to wired news. rofl.

I'm going to stick to embedded work for now. What I'd *really* like to do is start a company combining my awesome embedded engineering skills with mining industry requirements. Seems like there's a few openings there.

Isn't that scary? Desktop app development is apparently "doomed" according to wired news. rofl.

Haha yeh I've heard that before. Thin clients are useful in may cases but its not the be all and end all. Compiled client-side apps will be with us for some time yet :)

What embedded systems do you work with? MS? Symbian? Some sort of Java thingy or closer to the hardware in electronic devices etc? Don't know a lot about that stuff, we had a job a couple years back I would have liked to have looked after working on some PDA software.

last edited by Hogfather at 01:14:58 03/Jan/08

hat embedded systems do you work with? MS? Symbian? Some sort of Java thingy or closer to the hardware in electronic devices etc? Don't know a lot about that stuff, we had a job a couple years back I would have liked to have looked after working on some PDA software

I've built a few windows mobile device apps.

general market is very divided and for good reason.. in my own trading I've tightened up my stops and trying to keep my market exposure to a minimum

a few reasons why.. i wont go into detail however just keep an eye on the following

oil prices and general resources - this is what is fueling the economy - OPEC are keeping oil demand high which is good for the overall economy but will make the bleed we need take longer and be more protracted

keep a close eye on the US credit market - US market is what will bring the world to the brink of economic disaster - the US markets in general are on a tight rope with the world demand for resources propping up about 5 years of poor fiscal management that the US created

in my opinion i thought there would be a bust last year.. this didnt happen.. there were a few scares, however the way the global market has fended this off has me a little more bullish then i was 12 months ago

but be careful don't be all gun ho - just take a few more precautions and you should be fine - in business i would imagine first thing you should do is tighten up your cash flow and keep your debt/equity ratio under control

after that just get on with it

US market is what will bring the world to the brink of economic disaster

exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about. the possibility of a recession is not an economic disaster. a recession itself is not an economic disaster.

a depression is

Would a US depression really drag the entire world into depression? What impact would economic contraction in the states have on the new growth powerhouses in Asia, on whose success our economic fortunes for the next years seem to rely?

In any case I don't really think that there is anything I can do to mitigate the effects a global economic catastrophe of biblical proportions on my little Pty Ltd.

Like everyone else I'll be in the soup kitchen :)

and how likely would you say this hypothetical depression is. because every time there is an economic downturn (edit: or even the potential/jitters of one) the 'd' word gets thrown around but it's yet to happen. in fact people have been predicting depressions for the last 60 odd years and they've been wrong every time.

in fact the last economic depression experienced in either Australia or the US happened in the 30s. you might have heard about it, it was called the Great Depression.

so by suggesting that you think a depression is possible/likely in the foreseeable future you're effectively saying that you think the current global economic climate is the worst it has ever been since the great depression, right?



last edited by taggs at 19:04:40 03/Jan/08

yes

are you an economist?

edit: probably not, but seriously what makes you think the current economic climate is the worst is has ever been since the great depression?

genuinely interested as to what you think

last edited by taggs at 20:42:53 03/Jan/08

because.. and as i have been saying for years the tatic of extending global credit way past the global economic trend was very risky.. you can see the results now as any credit institutions inability to meet its obligations will send the market tumbleing - even the smallest whisper has markets cowering

because of this credit extension the entire world is affected as is the worlds ability to bring it under control

yes asia is strong.. but who are they selling to? answer USA..

what happens if US cant pay - ie credit fails - the only thing underpinning the current gobal growth dies in the ass and the rest of the world will tumble with it

also as i have said the further along we travel through the current cycle the further from full blown meltdown we come - which is y i am now more bullish - but i'm staying cautious

ps i did bacommerce and yes i did do economics at uni

i'm not an economist though and dont think economists make very good traders

economists get it right about as often as the weather man.
also I thought the depression was caused more from a spiral of social behaviours rather than the actual economic climate.
wasn't there a car in every garage and all that?

its just a term based on consecutive negitive growth

because.. and as i have been saying for years the tatic of extending global credit way past the global economic trend was very risky.. you can see the results now as any credit institutions inability to meet its obligations will send the market tumbleing - even the smallest whisper has markets cowering

because of this credit extension the entire world is affected as is the worlds ability to bring it under control

agreed, think we disagree as to the severity of the problem though

yes asia is strong.. but who are they selling to? answer USA..

what happens if US cant pay - ie credit fails - the only thing underpinning the current gobal growth dies in the ass and the rest of the world will tumble with it

yeah, the US isn't in the best shape at the moment but some of the metrics people come up with to make really bearish forecasts are so retarded... like GDP growth vs. debt - comparing stocks vs flows. = pointless. I still think the US has the ability to repay all of their debt unless the next president is as hopeless as the current one.

ps i did bacommerce and yes i did do economics at uni

did you do any serious economics? i.e. 3rd+ year? if not than you haven't really done any useful economics =)

i'm not an economist though and dont think economists make very good traders

good thing we're discussing economics and not trading then ;)

though it's funny that most investment banks and large financial corporations hire economists, mathematicians, engineers and statisticians (i.e. those with quantitative skills) to contruct the models that underpin their trading strategies, positions, etc.

a family member of mine is the ceo of a top tier australian funds management company and they employ plenty of economists. but hey i'm sure not everywhere is like that.

USA will easily pay back its debt. Wait did I say USA? I meant Halliburton will pay back the USA's debt

though it's funny that most investment banks and large financial corporations hire economists, mathematicians, engineers and statisticians (i.e. those with quantitative skills) to contruct the models that underpin their trading strategies, positions, etc.

thats because the number 1 rule for most traders is 'trade the trend'

those noobs predict the trends.. the traders are the guys with the balls who act on this info

lol ok

sounds like someone has been watching Boiler Room far to much :p

taggs out of interest what IM does your relo work at? PM if you don't want it on a public forum, I've been in the Funds Management game for nearly 10 years now and have dealt with a good number of Au and global fund managers, I'd be interested.

And taggs is right,

though it's funny that most investment banks and large financial corporations hire economists, mathematicians, engineers and statisticians (i.e. those with quantitative skills) to contruct the models that underpin their trading strategies, positions, etc.

a family member of mine is the ceo of a top tier australian funds management company and they employ plenty of economists. but hey i'm sure not everywhere is like that.